A Game of Runs

Spend any time around the game of basketball and you’ll hear it, from a commentator, a coach, a player, or a fan: “Basketball is a game of runs”. This adage is used as rallying cry for teams who need to string together some baskets and stops to get back into a game and as a warning to teams who have created some distance to not let momentum swing in their opponents direction. We’ll take a look at what allows teams to go on runs, how momentum plays a role in the modern NBA, and most importantly decide if basketball is truly a game of runs.

What is a run?

In simplest terms, a run is a team scoring while preventing their opponents from doing so. In the 1,231 games we analyzed (every regular season game from the 2023-24 season, plus the NBA Cup championship) a total of 265,335 points were scored. However - if we use our initial definition of a run we find that there were a lot of runs of two or three points (and actually a fair number of one point runs as well). Let’s say a run needs to consist of more than four points.

We see a pretty logarithmic drop off in frequency as our run length gets higher. This stands to reason as every time a team extends a scoring streak their opponent receives a possession and an opportunity to stop the run.

Now that we see how common 4 and 5 points scoring sprees are, we need to really consider if these are actually “runs”. There are plenty are arguments against it. A team can actually score 4 points in a single possession and in the case of end of quarter situations could have two scoring possessions without the opposition getting a chance to respond.

What, then, is a run in basketball?

Maybe 6 points. In the 1,231 games evaluated every one had a run of at least 6 points. Curiously, all but one game had a maximum run size of at least 7 points. That one outlier was a game played between the Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks on March 5th, 2024. The Pacers won the game 137-120 thanks to a 3rd quarter where they outscored Dallas 32-18. Indiana started that quarter on four separate 5 point runs, each interrupted by Dallas scoring 2.

While 6 points is still perhaps a bit weak of a definition of a run, larger runs are still fairly common. We find that 77% of NBA games had at least a 10 point run, and more that 16% had at least a 15 point run.

The Anatomy of a Run

We’ve established scoring runs are the norm in basketball. This makes sense and they are crucial - scoring more points than an opponent over a period of time is the only way to win basketball games. How then do teams go on these scoring runs?

In all runs of 10 or more, 42.4% of points were scored via 3 point field goals, 45.6% by way of 2 point field goals, and the remaining 12% of points were from free throws. During the entire season the breakdown was 33.8% 3pt, 51.4% 2pt, and 14.8% free throws. During these runs teams shot 77.6.% from inside the arc, 70.1% behind it, and 83.7% from the free throw line. (Season average 54.1/36.4/77.9). This is a staggering difference in efficiency, and simply put at this point it seems the best way to create separation or close a gap is simply to hit shots.

During the 2024 season, the offensive to defensive rebound ratio in the NBA was 1:2.13. Put differently, on any given missed shot, there was a 31.9% chance of an offensive rebound and a 68.1% chance of a defensive rebound. However, during runs of 10 of more points, the team on the run collected the offensive rebound 47.4% of the time and the defensive rebound 82.7% of the time, dominating in both categories.

Being able to clear the glass allowed teams on runs to get out in transition, scoring 21% of there points on fast breaks (season average 12.6%). Additionally teams scored 11% of their points on 2nd chance attempts, which was lower than the league average 12% for the year, but more impressive when considering the reduced opportunities for 2nd chance points that comes with shooting over 70% from the field.

30 Point Run

On December 3rd, 2023, twenty thousand people gathered into American Airlines Center to watch the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Dallas Mavericks. The home fans, at least those who were left at the beginning of the fourth quarter, were distraught, their team was losing 84-107. Then with 10:25 to go in the quarter one of the most one sided stretches of basketball began when A.J. Lawson hit a three pointer. OKC would respond with turnover by traveling, and Seth Curry would make them pay by hitting another 3.

Time out Thunder. Back to action there was a bad pass by Lu Dort that lead to a Derick Lively dunk. Then Dončić gets a steal from Chet Holmgren and hits a fast break three. Time out Thunder. Into the game comes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace to help protect the 13 point lead. On the possession out of the timeout Wallace would miss a 3, rebound to Lively. Missed 3 from Luka, offensive rebound Lively, and a missed mid-range shot from Luka would be cleared by Dort. The Thunder’s first defensive stop in almost 3 minutes. Dort would miss a 3, rebound to the Mavericks would would get 2 from a Lively layup. Jalen Williams would attempt a shot from 7 feet away that would miss and go out of bounds last touched by the Thunder. On the other end of the floor Seth Curry would drain another 3, and the Thunder would again fail to respond when Derick Lively would block Dort’s layup attempt and cause a 24 second violation. 14 seconds later Derick Jones Jr. would hit a 3. Then Wallace would miss his 3pt attempt, rebound going to Dončić who would set up an offensive set that ended in a Derick Lively dunk to tie the game.

Time out Thunder who just saw their 24 point lead evaporate in less than 5 minutes of game time. Out of the time out the Thunder would to score when Jalen Williams shot was blocked by A.J. Lawson. Dončić would respond with another midrange shot to put Dallas ahead for the first time since 2:23 to go in the first quarter. We’re almost done I promise. Dort would miss a 3, the Seth Curry misses a 3 but Derick Jones Jr gets an offensive rebound and put back. The Holmgren would lose the ball, Dončić gets credited with the steal and a fast break layup.

Time out Thunder, having not scored in 6 minutes and 51 seconds have given up 30 points in that period to find themselves down by 6. Finally out of the time out Chet Holmgren would find Jalen Williams for an easy dunk and the run was over. Dallas, who had scored 33 points in the first 8 minutes of the quarter would only score 3 more, and Oklahoma City would end the game on an 8 point run of their own to win 126-120.

During the 30 point run, Dallas missed 3 shots and got the offensive rebound on two of them. The Thunder committed 6 turn overs and missed 8 shots. They were credited with a single offensive rebound which resulted in a 24 second shot clock violation and a single defensive rebound. The Thunder’s biggest run in this game was 13 points.

Conclusion

Is basketball a game of runs? Maybe. It’s probably more accurate to say that basketball is a game of shooting efficiently, limiting second chance points, and eliminating mistakes. Are runs common in basketball? Certainly. Teams can score in bunches, but does this lead to momentum? Not always. In fact, teams who score 10 in a row are no more likely to score the next bucket than their opponent. At the end of the day these are professional basketball players playing under the brightest lights. If they’ve given up 10, 15, 20 points in a row they’re still expected to respond. Even if they’ve given up 30 unanswered points they’re expected to find a way to win the game.

Bias Disclaimer: The author of this article is a self proclaimed fan of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Care has been taken to ensure this affinity does not affect the content presented here.